NBA best bets: Picks against spread, props, odds for Mavs vs. Wolves Game 5 on Thu. 5/30 (2024)

We have one standalone matchup on tap in the NBA tonight, with one side looking to punch its ticket to the Finals and the other hoping to avoid elimination.

The Dallas Mavericksown a 3-1 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves, as the Wolves try to defend their home floor and stay alive with both teams fighting for a chance to face theBoston Celtics in theNBA Finals.

The Mavs are 4.5-point underdogson the spread in Thursday's contest, with the over/under listed at 209.5 total points at FanDuel. So, where does the betting value lie in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals?

Read below for our fiveNBA best bets forMavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 5 on Thursday, May 30— featuring two picks against the spreadand predictionsfor three different props.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Thursday, May 30, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Timberwolves 1H -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)

ByAndrew O'Connor-Watts

The Wolves have their backs against the wall for a second-consecutive elimination game and if they have any hope of extending this series, they’ll need to come out with energy in the first two frames — something they’ve done in three of the four games already (3-1 ATS in the first half this series).

Shams Charania reported that Mavericks center Dereck Lively II could play in Game 5 but I don’t think that’s likely in a game that isn’t nearly as dire for Dallas as it is Minnesota. He looked like he suffered a concussion, and while I’m not claiming to be a doctor, I do think it makes sense not to rush Lively back despite how critical he’s been for the Mavericks.

Lively's on/off numbers are fantastic. The Mavericks have a 122.7 offensive rating and 105 defensive rating when Lively is on the court these playoffs, and a 111.7 offensive and 117.6 defensive rating without him (+23.6 Net per Basketball Reference).

I think Minnesota wins the game, but the Mavs have been an excellent second-half team this postseason (11-3-2 ATS), and I trust their late-game offense much more than the Wolves. Dallas owns a Net Rating of -5.5 on the road in the first half though, compared to the Wolves +3.2 at home.

Finally, the line is also a bit too long for the full game, and in the Conference Finals, that’s not something I want to worry about.Since last season, favorites laying -4 or more are just 2-12 ATS and 7-7 straight up. Fading those big favorites on the moneyline gets you a 43% ROI going back to the 2021 season.

I’ll bank on the Wolves creating separation by halftime and take them -2.5 in the first half.

Pick: Timberwolves 1H -2.5 (-110)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds (-102, DraftKings)

ByJoe Dellera

Luka was tremendous on the glass yet again without Dereck Lively and racked up 15 rebounds on 17 rebound chances. While this is an incredible conversion rate, Luka has a 66% conversion rate during the playoffs.

The biggest thing is Lively’s absence. Given the neck injury, and how early he was ruled out of Game 4, I'm skeptical about his availability in Game 5 when the initial expectations were that he could be ready to go by the Finals.

Luka has gone over this line in six of his last nine outings without Lively, but with Gafford also averaging 10.9 rebounds on 14.4 chances.

I expect Luka to be the best rebounding option for Dallas, and for him to record double-digit boards in Game 5.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds (-102)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-120, FanDuel)

ByChris Baker

I’ve been on this every game this series and it’s been frustrating to see Towns struggle with efficiency, but the volume has been there.Towns scored 25 on an efficient 9-of-13 from the field in Game 4, but likely would have been able to reach 30 points if he could’ve kept himself out of foul trouble.

Towns also led the Wolves with a +15 plus-minus, so I have less fear of him being benched for Naz Reid here as Towns actually made a tremendously positive impact on the game in multiple ways.

Towns is talented enough to score 30 or 35 points here but as long as he can stay at just average efficiency he should be able to reach 20 points tonight.

Trust Towns to reach this number and sprinkle his alt lines at 25+ and 30+ points as well.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-120)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

To Lead After Every Quarter – Neither Team (-126, FanDuel)

ByMaltman

All four games in this series have truly been back-and-forth affairs. In fact, this bet, for there to be any other result at the end of every quarter, has hit every game this series.

Both of these teams have stretches defensively where they are super locked in, and able to shut the other team down, which leads to extended runs. This has led to comebacks in both directions.

Luka left a lot on the table Tuesday, and I think he will come out super-aggressive tonight. At the same time, Minnesota is at home, and has a great shot here.

I think this is a back-and-forth affair, and instead of trying to figure out who will come out on top, I’d rather jump on the bet that has hit for four straight games. Betting .25u on any other result at -126 on FanDuel.

Pick: To Lead After Every Quarter – Neither Team (-126)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Timberwolves -4.5 (-112, FanDuel)

ByJoe Nelson

Game 5 hosts in the conference finals are on a 10-2 S/U and ATS run since 2013 as Minnesota may be a threat to make things interesting in this series. It has been an incredibly even series as the difference between the current status of Dallas being up 3-1, and the series being over with a 4-0 Minnesota sweep comes down to only a few plays.

The Wolves lost Game 1 at home in a tough situation following an emphatic Game 7 win over Denver, while Game 2 was a fluke loss in a game the Wolves deserved to win. Minnesota has had a lead with less than five minutes remaining in all four games in this series and has been the better outside shooting team.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving fell short of their early series performances in Game 4, and with Doncic's multiple ailments, the longer the series goes the worse his chances of being at full strength.Minnesota has outshot Dallas but has not been able to pull away in this series including winning by only five despite a 10% edge in field goal rate in Game 4 with turnovers and free throws favoring Dallas.

Minnesota missed nine free throw attempts on Tuesday while conceding 30 points off 15 turnovers. Dallas had 14 turnovers but those led to only 15 points for Minnesota and those numbers should be expected to normalize.The Wolves were the better team in the regular season and a case can be made they have been the better team in this series by a reasonable margin despite the close finishes and the late game bounces favoring Dallas.

Early market support appears to be with Minnesota, as -4.5 stands as an appealing price considering Minnesota closed at -6 in Game 2 at home.

Pick:Timberwolves -4.5 (-112)