These programs have the talent to conquer their schedules.
Brad Crawford
Chances are high college football's national champion to end the 2024 season will finish with a perfect record. Despite daunting schedules for several perceived contenders with loaded rosters, ESPN's Football Power Index has projected 10 teams with a better shot than most to win out — and nearly all have play-making quarterbacks and roster advantages over the opposition.
Michigan's run through the Big Ten en route to a perfect season marked the second consecutive year andfifth time in the last six that college football's national champion finished unblemished, dating back to Clemson starting the run in 2018.
Glancing through various schedules around the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and throughout the Group of Five ranks, these are the 10 schools with a 2.6% chance or better at going unbeaten, per the FPI projections.
RELATED: 50 thoughts and predictions on college football's 2024 season
According to ESPN's FPI,these college football teams with a shot to go unbeaten...
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 15.8%
Chance Notre Dame goes 12-0: Above average
Why it could happen: Not to mention a popular offseason narrative, but the expanded College Football Playoff will always benefit the Fighting Irish as long as Notre Dame stays independent and continues to recruit at a high level. Looking at the 2024 schedule specifically for Marcus Freeman's crew, Notre Dame's toughest game might be in the season opener at Texas A&M. The Fighting Irish host Louisville and Florida State, too. The finale at USC may determine a playoff spot if both of those teams have double-digit wins. Riley Leonard will be a Heisman finalist if Notre Dame is unblemished entering the postseason.
2. Oregon Ducks
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 15.7%
ChanceOregon goes 12-0: Average
Why it could happen: Scouring Oregon's two-deep, it takes a minute — or three — to find a potential weakness ahead of the Ducks' first season in the Big Ten. The schedule stiffens, yes, but Oregon only plays one nationally-ranked opponent away from Autzen Stadium, where it holds one of the nation's longest-home winning streaks. The Ducks have two quarterbacks that would start for most programs and their defensive line, which includes new portal talent, will really get after it.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 10.8%
ChanceGeorgia goes 12-0: Average
Why it could happen: You're not going to find a more complete roster within the SEC than what Kirby Smart has put together in Athens. He's won national championships twice in the last three seasons and would've gotten back to the College Football Playoff last fall if the Bulldogs would've taken out Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. They entered that one 12-0, taking advantage of a favorable slate by SEC standards. This season's schedule is far more difficult and includestrips to Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 7.5%
ChanceOhio Stategoes 12-0: Above average
Why it could happen: Have you seen Ryan Day's roster? It looks more like an Avengers sequel in terms ofa star-quality supporting cast of leadsover a footballteam. The elephant in the room is beating Michigan, something Ohio State hasn't done in three seasons despite its national success. The Wolverines have captured the Big Ten title during all of those years, too. The defense is veteran-laden for the Buckeyes and should be one of the nation's best.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 15.8%
ChancePenn State goes 12-0: Below average
Why it could happen: Not a believer in James Franklin yet? He doesn't have an unbeaten season in Happy Valley, but managed to win 11 games four different times and just added a 10-win campaign in 2023 with much of that talent returning. Edge rusher Abdul Carter is a havoc-creator and the Nittany Lions are going to need his best early in road games against West Virginia and USC — and those high-powered passing games.
6. Texas Longhorns
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 6.8%
ChanceTexas goes 12-0: Average
Why it could happen: Not downplaying the Longhorns' shot at winning a conference championship during their first season in the SEC, but getting to Atlanta without a regular-season loss feels unlikely despite the talent level. Trips to Michigan and Texas A&M are treacherous, and there's a home showdown with Georgia inOctober that very well could establish the SEC's new "it" rivalry of elite titans. All unbeaten bets are off if the Longhorns manage to tip-toe past the Wolverines, Sooners and Bulldogs by the midseason point.
7. James Madison Dukes
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 3.9%
Chance JMU goes 12-0: Average
Why it could happen: The Dukes were one of college football's best stories last season before an unprecedented campaign came to a crashing halt against Appalachian State with College GameDay in town. The leftovers from that team who didn't enter the portal or leave with new Indiana coach Curt Cignetti want more. They'll get an opportunity to return the favor against the Mountaineers in Boone down the stretch, but the toughest game on the slate comes at North Carolina early. Win that one and national media will be singing JMU's praises once again within the Group of Five ranks.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 3.4%
ChanceAlabama goes 12-0: Below average
Why it could happen: Considering the Crimson Tide plays Georgia along with three nationally-ranked opponents away from Tuscaloosa in Kalen DeBoer's first season, Alabama would likely go ahead and build the status for its new coach if this team gets through its SEC gauntlet unscathed. There's an early game at Wisconsin, too. But here's where it gets interesting — if you've followed various preseason SEC power rankings, most have slotted Alabama behind the top-tier of title contenders. Bulletin board material much?
T9. Liberty Flames
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 2.6%
ChanceLiberty goes 12-0: Above average
Why it could happen: One of the Group of Five's potential playoff hopefuls this fall, Jamey Chadwell is gunning for his second straight unbeaten regular season after accomplishing the feat in 2023 with Kaidon Salter as his quarterback. He returns, along with much of the production from a record-setting offensive attack. We're a bit surprised here that Liberty's win-out percentage is only 2.6. Glancing at the schedule, the Flames should be a touchdown favorite in every matchup this fall.
T-9. Kansas Jayhawks
ESPN FPI's win-out percentage: 2.6%
ChanceKansas goes 12-0: Below average
Why it could happen: Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks have a legitimate shot at starting the season 7-0 before a showdown with Kansas State determines the midseason pecking order in the Big 12 title race. That predictionmight include extravagant promises, but the schedule sets up for success. From there, Kansas misses conference newcomers Utah and Arizona, two teams with veteran quarterbacks who could easily torch a possible unblemished record.
